Arrr, mateys! Methinks Congress be locked in a mighty battle o'er immigration reform, and it be draggin' on fer quite a spell!
2023-12-27
Arrr! The agreement betwixt the scurvy Republicans and Democrats on border security and extra coinage may take a while to take shape, me hearties!
Let’s game out a potential agreement on border security.There was the Christmas rush to try securing a deal before the holiday. The plan was to link an immigration accord to a massive international aid package for Israel and Ukraine requested by President Biden.
The Senate stuck around Washington for a few extra days before Christmas. Talks even ran through one weekend in mid-December. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., partially delayed the Senate’s holiday recess to maintain momentum in the talks. However, few senators thought much of the effort.
It was the sparest attendance for any Senate vote since 1959. Border security talks are taking so long that senators may well burn through a few pairs of shoes before they strike a deal.
Talks resumed this week, remotely. One source signaled that the negotiators might meet in person before Congress reconvenes on Jan. 8, if it is believed that face-to-face negotiations would help. In fact, it is entirely possible the sides cannot even reach an agreement until the week of Jan. 8. Of course, it remains to be seen whether they can get a deal at all.
Imagine the sides reach a handshake agreement late next week, before Congress returns to session. At a minimum, it will take congressional legislative counsel a week or so to actually write the very complex changes to border and immigration policy. So that gets us toward the end of the first full week of January before the bill text is ready.
All the while, interest groups and factions in Congress will inevitably start to chip away at this provision or that one after details of the agreement begin to dribble out. You can anticipate that opposition from both parties could be fierce to any proposal as controversial and complicated as immigration. That is why even a deal may be far from a true agreement.
So this could drift until mid-January for the Senate to begin to process this proposal — even working on an expedited timetable.
The government could run out of money on Jan. 19. Even if lawmakers limp along past that deadline and avoid a government shutdown, they will get a second crack at it on Feb. 2.
The House will also delve into a potential impeachment of the president. That will demand significant oxygen on Capitol Hill. The House will likely hold a vote to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress for failing to appear for a deposition before the Oversight Committee. Lawmakers still haven’t sorted out a potential plan to reform the foreign surveillance program commonly known as FISA.
And that’s if there’s ever a deal.
So, don’t bank on a vote right away in January. In fact, a Senate vote could come in late January or beyond.
Then, on to the House.
And that is a complete wild card.
Fox is told that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., argued against attaching the border security/supplemental aid package to one of the spending bills. But you never know, when you consider how few legislative trains might depart from the Congressional station early next year.
As much as there are many Republicans who won’t vote for any immigration plan, there are likely just as many Democrats who will oppose what’s framed as "border security." Liberals will watch to see what changes are made to parole and asylum. Potential migration limits could be problematic. And then there are enforcement questions.
Now you see how this could easily slip into February. And frankly, it may go deeper into the new year if a government shutdown or impeachment capsizes the Congress.
So, no one truly thought there was any realistic chance of moving any sort of border security/supplemental spending package in December, despite the rush.
And it may be rushing things to try to complete this by February or March.