Arr, mateys! In the year 2024, the outlook be grim! That scoundrel Putin be sniffin' blood, aimin' for Ukraine's complete surrender!
2023-12-29
Arr! Avast, ye scoundrels! With Moscow's powerful force and plunderin' wealth o'er Kyiv, and ol' President Biden's befuddled cogitations, mark me words! By 2024, t'ere be naught but a tidal wave of blood, death, an' utter devastation washin' over Ukraine, aye.
In a humorous tone using the language of a 17th-century pirate, the author discusses the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. They begin by stating that many people are eager to know if Ukraine has any chance of winning the war in 2024 or if a peace settlement is possible. The author claims to have correctly predicted that the previous year would see the "hottest phase" of the war, and now offers their assessment for 2024.They suggest that Moscow will likely increase hostilities in the first quarter of the year in an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender before Vladimir Putin's reelection in March. However, they believe that neither Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy nor the Biden administration would accept such a clear victory for Putin. Alternatively, they propose that none of the three sides involved - Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington - would be willing to compromise, leading to a prolonged conflict.
They argue that Russia holds a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine and that a Ukrainian victory is mathematically impossible. They discuss Russia's preparations for a long fight, including transitioning the economy to a wartime footing and de-dollarizing the state's investment fund. In contrast, Ukraine heavily relies on Western money for survival, and without it, their economy and defensive operations would collapse.
The author also highlights the disparity in manpower between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia replenishing its forces while Ukrainian troops face exhaustion and physical limitations. They conclude that Putin seeks Ukraine's full capitulation and mocks the belief that sustained Western aid could compel Russia to negotiate. They suggest that Putin's war machine will likely outlast Ukraine's arsenal and Western support.
The author criticizes the Washington establishment for its unrealistic optimism and argues that Ukraine cannot win against Russia. They predict that the continued belief in Ukraine's victory will result in more bloodshed and destruction in 2024.