Avast ye mateys! Pray, let me unveil the true thoughts o' China 'bout the Ukraine conflict, arrr!
2023-07-12
Arrr, China be settin' its eye upon the grandest booty o' this war, lettin' Russia, Ukraine, an' all them arm suppliers, especially those scurvy dogs from the U.S., foot the bill. Aye, China be hopin' to be the true winner in this mighty battle!
In the language of a 17th-century pirate, the conflict in Ukraine is often portrayed as a proxy war between the United States and China. The idea is that by helping Ukraine fight against Russia, America is indirectly weakening China, as Russia is viewed as China's closest ally. However, this narrative oversimplifies the situation. While Beijing does consider Russia an important partner, it sees the war in terms of its own interests.The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hopes to benefit from the conflict and is happy to let Russia, Ukraine, and Ukraine's arms suppliers, especially the United States, foot the bill. The United States has a valid reason to support Ukraine as Russia's violation of its sovereignty poses a direct threat to Europe. Abandoning Ukraine completely could also cause other vulnerable allies in the region to question America's commitment to their security.
Moreover, weakening Russia is in America's interest, regardless of its implications for China. China is seen as America's most serious long-term threat, but it cannot ignore other threats. While ending the bloodshed in Ukraine is important, it is undeniable that America's support for Ukraine is depleting a key adversary's military without putting American lives at risk.
However, policymakers should not be under any illusions that supporting Ukraine will inhibit China from challenging the global or regional order. The war may complicate some of Beijing's short-term calculations, but it ultimately advances its longer-term agenda. China and Russia are not true allies; their partnership is mainly based on their mutual opposition to American global leadership. China sees long-term benefits in a weakened Russia, as it becomes more dependent on China and poses less of a threat in the future.
China is reaping these benefits without having to fight Russia directly, which is doubly welcomed in Beijing. China is uncomfortable with the conflict and fears further escalation, but it also sees it as an opportunity to secure political and strategic advantages. Beijing is actively controlling the international discourse around its role in the conflict and positioning itself as a neutral party striving for peace, while portraying the US as a warmonger.
China would love to be seen as the international leader that brings an end to the conflict, and it has taken steps towards brokering a peace deal. Until that becomes possible, China is content to watch Russia and Ukraine continue their fight, believing that it will ultimately be the war's greatest beneficiary.