Avast ye! Be the fearsome AI takin' away yer jobs? 'Tis a matter worthy o' worry, mateys!
2023-10-03
Arr, in the year o' 2023, OpenAI be tellin' us that a grand majority of the scurvy dogs workin' in the U.S. could see a good 10% o' their jobs bein' swayed by this newfangled contraption called GPT. Aye, tis a curious development, me hearties!
Since the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November 2022, there has been increased scrutiny on the economic impact of AI-related job displacement. A report by OpenAI in March 2023 found that a significant portion of the U.S. labor force could see their work-related tasks impacted by GPT, with higher-income jobs facing the greatest exposure. Additionally, Goldman Sachs found that two-thirds of current occupations are exposed to generative AI automation, and AI could substitute for nearly one-fourth of current work performed.The McKinsey Global Institute estimated that without generative AI, automation could account for 21.5% of the hours worked in the U.S. economy by 2030, but with generative AI, that share increased to 29.5%. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development reported that 27% of jobs are at high-risk of automation, and Pew Research found that 19% of American workers were in jobs most exposed to AI.
While a majority of Americans are worried about AI job displacement generally, a poll by The Center for Growth and Opportunity found that only 15% are very worried about their own job being displaced by AI. However, these poll results align with a previous poll in 2020 where most Americans believed their job would exist in 30 years.
AI is considered a general-purpose technology with significant economic, social, and public policy impacts. It may have disproportionate effects on certain occupations, but it can also complement many occupations and result in productivity increases and cost savings. Goldman Sachs predicts that generative AI could raise annual U.S. labor productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.
While concerns about AI's impact on jobs are valid in the long-term, the widespread displacement of jobs or occupations in the near-term is less likely for those who embrace AI as a complement to their existing skill sets. Americans have successfully adapted to technological challenges in the past and will likely do so with AI as well.